With the signing of Ryan Fitzpatrick, New York Jet’s fans can breathe a huge sigh of relief. Mostly because Geno Smith isn’t under center anymore. What does this mean for fantasy however? The move now makes it safe to draft both Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker at their respective ADP’s. I love targeting highly concentrated passing offenses, which the Jets display. This signing should also boost Matt Forte’s value slightly simply because defenses won’t be able to stack the box with Fitzmagic at quarterback. None of the Jets players jump out at me as being great values in re draft leagues, but that doesn’t mean I’ll be avoiding them either. The move from Geno to Ryan does make me a lot more comfortable owning the Jet’s receivers. I’ll be keeping up with the situation throughout training camp and I’ll continue to make updates to the blog as needed.
Josh Gordon’s first two years in the league were fantastic and put him on pace to be one of the best receivers of all time. How quickly things change. With Gordon’s inability to stay off the weed, he’s now faced multiple suspensions over the last few years. Over the past two seasons in which he played, Gordon has averaged 28% of Cleveland’s total targets. Obviously, with Corey Coleman, Duke Johnson, and Gary Barnidge on the roster, we should expect a lower market share of the targets. I think a reasonable number to project Gordon at is roughly 22%. When we extrapolate that to a 12 game season (remember Josh is suspended for the first 4 games), we get an early projection of 101 targets or about 8 targets per game. We know what Josh Gordon can do with the ball in his hands. Despite missing two games in 2013 due to another suspension, Gordon led the NFL in receiving yards with 1,646. So where should we draft him?
Right now I’ve got Josh Gordon listed as a high upside, Wide Receiver 3 in 12 team PPR formats. If your strategy is to go wide receiver heavy, I can justify taking him in the 5th round. I don’t see him dropping past the 7th round, so you’ll need to be aggressive when drafting him. Josh Gordon single handedly has what it takes to win people leagues this year with his incredible talent and upside. Also, Hue Jackson has been known to maximize the talent on his rosters, which could make the Cleveland offense fairly interesting this season. Remember that Gordon and RG3 played together at Baylor and Art Briles was quoted saying, “There is a natural connection between Griffin and Gordon”. Be careful selecting Gordon because there is tremendous downside, however, I’m willing to take that risk this season.
Let me know what you think. Will you be selecting Josh Gordon this season?
The reason I started this blog was simple. I wanted to help others, that are interested in sports and fantasy, become more knowledgeable through the use of advanced stats and in depth thought processes. I will never tell you how to run your team because YOU are the decision maker. However, this blog will help assist you in your decision making through my rankings, waiver wire watch list, and matchup articles that should be posted every week of the football season. With that being said, here is a simple explanation of my favorite draft strategy this season:
The draft strategy I will be using this season is known as the zero RB. With this strategy, the first 2-4 rounds will be spent selecting elite wide receivers, especially in Point Per Reception formats. By doing this, we eliminate some of the volatility the running back position displayed last season. With the latest news of Le'Veon Bell being suspended 4 games (my #1 RB for the season), I will place even more of an emphasis on this strategy. The league is trending towards the pass, so as fantasy players I feel that we need to transition that way as well. Obviously we still need to select running backs and as I study mock drafts, I notice players such as Matt Jones, Jonathan Stewart, and Latavius Murray continue to go too low. With this strategy, we select the high value running backs and load up on the wide receiver position. I will always wait on QB’s and TE’s because other players tend to over value those positions. I will be perfectly okay if I end up with teams that start Kirk Cousins and Zach Miller this season because I know my receiver position will be absolutely loaded. There are many ways to win fantasy championships, but this will be the angle I take this season.
I would be glad to discuss ideas with anyone. You can reach out to me on Twitter or shoot me an Email. Be on the lookout for my positional rankings that should be coming out this week. Have an awesome weekend.
My strategy in fantasy football has always been to wait until roughly the tenth round to grab a QB. There will be no changes to that philosophy this year with some of the value that’s still available late in mock drafts. Here are three late round QB’s to target:
1. The San Diego Chargers made no attempt to improve their putrid running game (ranked 31st last season), which is why Phillip Rivers may be my favorite QB to target this season. To help sure up some of the blocking inconsistencies from last season, the Chargers added Center Matt Slausen. This should give Rivers a little more time to throw the ball this year. We know that Rivers is a high volume QB, which gives us fantasy owners a lot of safety in selecting him as our QB. The Chargers also went out and spent money on free agent Travis Benjamin. By doing this, the field will now be stretched and space will be opened up for guys like Keenan Allen, Stevie Johnson, Danny Woodhead, and Antonio Gates. Rivers being taken at QB 12 is ridiculously low. Take advantage of the market being down on the Charger’s QB in your fantasy drafts this season.
2. In the last ten games of the 2015 NFL season, Kirk Cousins had a 23:3 Touchdown to Interception ratio. We know that Washington made no attempt to get better in the running game by allowing Alfred Morris to walk away in free agency. We know that the Redskins selected, arguably, the best receiver in the draft this season in Josh Doctson. Remembering that the Redskins have one of the easier strength of schedules in the NFL this season, this leads me to say that Kirk Cousins has the potential to be a top 8 fantasy QB this season. With the 12th best offensive line (per PFF) and an elite group of weapons to work with (Jordan Reed, Desean Jackson, Pierre Garcon), there is no reason to expect mediocrity out of Kirk this season. You like that?
3. Personally, I think people enjoy hating on Ryan Tannehill too much. By doing this his ADP continues to drop, however, he now can be drafted safely at QB 21. With such little invested in Tannehill at his draft price, we’ve now put ourselves in a really good situation. Head Coach Adam Gase has always molded his offenses to suit his roster (pass heavy with Manning in 2013). I think his upside is well worth the price because of three reasons: weapons, draft strategy, and question marks with the running game. Miami’s weapons include Jarvis Landry, Davante Parker, Kenny Stills, and Jordan Cameron. The Dolphins spent draft picks on Leonte Caroo and Jakeem Grant, which makes me think they’ll move towards a more pass heavy approach in 2016. Lastly, with the Loss of Lamar Miller and no real replacement in Jay Ajayi and the injured Arian Foster, I don’t feel comfortable in projecting Miami’s running game until I’ve seen it. Tannehill’s upside is too much for me to pass up at his current ADP of QB 21.
With that being said, I’d love to see what you guys have to say by commenting with your favorite QB’s to target late in fantasy drafts. Also, be looking out for my draft strategy post that should be coming out this week.
As we head into the 2016 season, it’s important to recognize which players gain a boost in their expected role. Fantasy players are constantly looking to free the next big name (ie David Johnson due to Chris Johnson’s injury). Here are three wide receivers that I’m willing to take a chance on late in fantasy drafts:
1. A really sneaky receiver heading into 2016 is Bruce Ellington. Chip Kelly is in love with Ellington this offseason, saying “When you look at just the short time that I’ve seen film of him you’re like wow. That kid can do some interesting things”. The 49ers possess one of the worst rosters in the league meaning they will need to throw the ball. A lot. Chip Kelly, on average over the last three seasons, ran 114 more plays than the 49ers. Ellington plays much bigger than his 5’9” frame and is very creative after the catch. Chip Kelly’s system should mesh nicely with Bruce’s strengths, which include post and nine routes. Blaine Gabbert said that Bruce is “balling right now. He’s catching a lot of passes.” I’m intrigued by Ellington this year, especially in really deep leagues.
2. With Tajae Sharpe being listed as the #2 receiver in two wide sets by reporter Terry McCormick, I’m all in on him this year. With a 6’2”/195 frame, he was a target monster/possession receiver at UMass, leading the nation with 9.3 receptions per game last season. With Green-Beckham’s lack of work ethic and Kendall Wright’s constant let downs, it appears that Sharpe is in line for a fairly significant workload in his rookie season. With the Titans improvements to their running game (additions of Demarco Murray and Derrick Henry), the passing attack should be much more efficient under second year quarterback Marcus Mariota. Delanie Walker and Rishard Matthews should draw the defensive attention away from Sharpe, which will only help him this year. If Green-Beckham struggles to touch the field, I love Tajae Sharpe for late round fantasy value this season.
3. Carolina Panthers beat writer, David Newton, is reporting that Devin Funchess has emerged as the Panthers #2 receiver behind Kelvin Benjamin. At 6’5”/225 and the ability to play outside and in the slot, Funchess has the talent to embarrass opposing defenses. While he only played 44.7 % of the Panthers snaps last season, he still managed to catch 6 TD’s as a rookie. With his size and increase in expected playing time this season, it’s hard to overlook Funchess. With an ADP of 159, expect great production at a cheap cost out of the second year receiver.