Week 3 of the pre-season is the best way for us as fantasy players to get an understanding of how teams will use each of their players. In week 3, the starters play roughly 2-3 quarters and the coaching decisions tend to stay consistent into week 1 of the regular season. I felt like we learned a few things this week:
1. James White will be the Patriots 3rd down/passing role back. 2. Eli Rodgers has been very good in the slot for Pittsburgh. Keep an eye out for him in deeper leagues. 3. Chris Hogan looks to have a significant role within the Patriots offense already. 4. Jared Cook has finally played like an NFL player. He’s played significant snaps with the Packers starting unit and seems to have the trust of Aaron Rodgers. 5. The Colts passing offense should post some monstrous numbers this season. Look for Donte Moncrief to have a break out season. 6. Will Fuller has made the most of his pre-season opportunities and looks to be a lock for 120+ targets this season. 7. Kenny Stills has been fantastic this pre-season and should be a nice compliment to Jarvis Landry. 8. T.J. Yeldon and Chris Ivory continue to split carries, however Ivory will work as the goal line back. 9. Tyler Ervin is the clear handcuff to Lamar Miller. Has looked impressive thus far. 10. Lastly, this we be a list of some defenses that I think will be terrible to start the season. I’ll be attacking the Saints, Browns, Bears, Colts, Jaguars, Falcons, and the Dolphins. If you noticed something else that may be significant, leave me a comment or hit me up on twitter.
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Miami:
· Devante Parker did not win the No. 2 receiver job from Kenny Stills which may limit his upside this year. · Jay Ajayi has looked terrible this pre-season, so I'm expecting the Dolphins to use Arian Foster significantly. · The Miami pass defense is a mess. Should be one we will pick on in fantasy this season. Atlanta: · Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman have split reps all pre-season. I'm expecting a 60/40 timeshare to start the regular season. · Julio should be in line for another monster season IF he can stay healthy. · Im expecting Mohammad Sanu to become a factor late in the season. Matt Ryan still doesn’t seem to trust him as much. Dallas: · Ezekiel Elliott will be the bellcow running back for this team. He was fantastic last night in both facets of the game (against a really good defense in Seattle). · I’m not too worried about Dez Bryant simply because there is now a competent back up QB to rely on once Tony Romo gets hurt. Seattle: · Christine Michael has been a stud this pre-season. It wouldn’t shock me if he took the starting job away from Thomas Rawls. · Seattle will rotate 3 receivers to go along with Doug Baldwin. I love Tyler Lockett as a player, but his playing time is a concern. With the injury news regarding Dion Lewis the question must be asked, “Which Patriots running back should I own now”? James White is the clear back you want to own here because LeGarrette Blount’s role is not going to change. In 9 games last season after Lewis’ injury, White averaged 7 touches per game. I expect that number to increase slightly into the 8-10 range based on the pure volume that the offense can support with everyone healthy. I think James White is worthy of a 7-9th round selection in 12 team PPR formats. If we get more clarity on the situation, we can then move him up or down our rankings accordingly.
1. Cam Newton
2. Aaron Rodgers 3. Andrew Luck 4. Russell Wilson 5. Carson Palmer 6. Ben Roethlisberger 7. Drew Brees 8. Tom Brady 9. Eli Manning 10. Phillip Rivers 11. Kirk Cousins 12. Tyrod Taylor 13. Derek Carr 14. Tony Romo 15. Blake Bortles 16. Ryan Fitzpatrick 17. Jameis Winston 18. Matthew Stafford 19. Matt Ryan 20. Brock Osweiler 21. Joe Flacco 22. Andy Dalton 23. Jay Cutler 24. Ryan Tannehill 25. Marcus Mariota 26. Alex Smith 27. Robert Griffin III 28. Sam Bradford 29. Teddy Bridgewater 30. Jared Goff 31. Blaine Gabbert 32. Mark Sanchez With everyone chasing the “Zero RB” strategy, wide receivers are leaving the board quickly. In order to be happy with our roster construction, it’ll be crucial to target undervalued receivers. Here are a few names to consider when drafting in the middle to late rounds:
1. Donte Moncrief (ADP 49) is going to be a stud in the NFL one day. I had the chance to watch some film on him and came away very impressed. His natural size at 6-2, 180 pounds combined with the 4.4 speed he displays, makes it very difficult for cornerbacks to match up with him. Moncrief is fantastic against press coverage and has the skill to high point every pass. The Colts ability to consistently scheme up ways to get the ball in Donte’s hands, was very encouraging on tape. However, skill doesn’t always translate to fantasy, so why am I so interested in his draft value? Management addressed the O-Line issues and QB Andrew Luck is fully healthy, which should only help the values of the receiving core. The colts lost a combined 162 targets by letting Coby Fleener and Andre Johnson walk. If Moncrief happens to absorb 33% of those targets, we can assume a baseline projection of 150 targets for a receiver going in the late 4th round with Andrew Luck as his quarterback. I could justify selecting Moncrief as early as the 3rd round. 2. With the news that Stevie Johnson tore his meniscus, we can now safely select Travis Benjamin as a WR 4 with upside. He excels in stretching the field, but Matt Harmon (Backyard Banter) also charted him as a fantastic route runner. His two best routes against press coverage include the post and the slant. This is important because his strengths fit the Chargers offensive scheme well. Phillip Rivers thrives in the intermediate passing game and Benjamin should be a big part of that. The Chargers attempted to fix their O-Line and should once again be in the lead for the most pass attempts in the league. With and ADP of 119, Benjamin is being selected way too late. 3. One of my favorite receivers to target is Kamar Aiken simply because of the uncertainty surrounding the Ravens receiving core. 36-year-old Steve Smith coming off of a torn Achilles, 31-year-old Mike Wallace, and the injured Breshad Perriman are the only receivers in Aiken’s way this season. Question marks with the running game and the high volume passing attack should make Aiken a solid fantasy scorer throughout the season. According to reports, Kamar Aiken has entered training camp as the No. 2 receiver and has made “several big plays” in the first couple days of practice. Offensive Coordinator, Marc Trestman, has ranked in the top half of the NFL in pass attempts all 10 years as a play caller. Also, In games that Steve Smith missed last season, Aiken was a top 20 scorer in 5 of the 8 weeks. I love his high floor and ceiling at his current ADP of 125. |
@Whitsett_Justin
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