With the signing of Ryan Fitzpatrick, New York Jet’s fans can breathe a huge sigh of relief. Mostly because Geno Smith isn’t under center anymore. What does this mean for fantasy however? The move now makes it safe to draft both Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker at their respective ADP’s. I love targeting highly concentrated passing offenses, which the Jets display. This signing should also boost Matt Forte’s value slightly simply because defenses won’t be able to stack the box with Fitzmagic at quarterback. None of the Jets players jump out at me as being great values in re draft leagues, but that doesn’t mean I’ll be avoiding them either. The move from Geno to Ryan does make me a lot more comfortable owning the Jet’s receivers. I’ll be keeping up with the situation throughout training camp and I’ll continue to make updates to the blog as needed.
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Josh Gordon’s first two years in the league were fantastic and put him on pace to be one of the best receivers of all time. How quickly things change. With Gordon’s inability to stay off the weed, he’s now faced multiple suspensions over the last few years. Over the past two seasons in which he played, Gordon has averaged 28% of Cleveland’s total targets. Obviously, with Corey Coleman, Duke Johnson, and Gary Barnidge on the roster, we should expect a lower market share of the targets. I think a reasonable number to project Gordon at is roughly 22%. When we extrapolate that to a 12 game season (remember Josh is suspended for the first 4 games), we get an early projection of 101 targets or about 8 targets per game. We know what Josh Gordon can do with the ball in his hands. Despite missing two games in 2013 due to another suspension, Gordon led the NFL in receiving yards with 1,646. So where should we draft him?
Right now I’ve got Josh Gordon listed as a high upside, Wide Receiver 3 in 12 team PPR formats. If your strategy is to go wide receiver heavy, I can justify taking him in the 5th round. I don’t see him dropping past the 7th round, so you’ll need to be aggressive when drafting him. Josh Gordon single handedly has what it takes to win people leagues this year with his incredible talent and upside. Also, Hue Jackson has been known to maximize the talent on his rosters, which could make the Cleveland offense fairly interesting this season. Remember that Gordon and RG3 played together at Baylor and Art Briles was quoted saying, “There is a natural connection between Griffin and Gordon”. Be careful selecting Gordon because there is tremendous downside, however, I’m willing to take that risk this season. Let me know what you think. Will you be selecting Josh Gordon this season? The reason I started this blog was simple. I wanted to help others, that are interested in sports and fantasy, become more knowledgeable through the use of advanced stats and in depth thought processes. I will never tell you how to run your team because YOU are the decision maker. However, this blog will help assist you in your decision making through my rankings, waiver wire watch list, and matchup articles that should be posted every week of the football season. With that being said, here is a simple explanation of my favorite draft strategy this season:
The draft strategy I will be using this season is known as the zero RB. With this strategy, the first 2-4 rounds will be spent selecting elite wide receivers, especially in Point Per Reception formats. By doing this, we eliminate some of the volatility the running back position displayed last season. With the latest news of Le'Veon Bell being suspended 4 games (my #1 RB for the season), I will place even more of an emphasis on this strategy. The league is trending towards the pass, so as fantasy players I feel that we need to transition that way as well. Obviously we still need to select running backs and as I study mock drafts, I notice players such as Matt Jones, Jonathan Stewart, and Latavius Murray continue to go too low. With this strategy, we select the high value running backs and load up on the wide receiver position. I will always wait on QB’s and TE’s because other players tend to over value those positions. I will be perfectly okay if I end up with teams that start Kirk Cousins and Zach Miller this season because I know my receiver position will be absolutely loaded. There are many ways to win fantasy championships, but this will be the angle I take this season. I would be glad to discuss ideas with anyone. You can reach out to me on Twitter or shoot me an Email. Be on the lookout for my positional rankings that should be coming out this week. Have an awesome weekend. As we head into the 2016 season, it’s important to recognize which players gain a boost in their expected role. Fantasy players are constantly looking to free the next big name (ie David Johnson due to Chris Johnson’s injury). Here are three wide receivers that I’m willing to take a chance on late in fantasy drafts:
1. A really sneaky receiver heading into 2016 is Bruce Ellington. Chip Kelly is in love with Ellington this offseason, saying “When you look at just the short time that I’ve seen film of him you’re like wow. That kid can do some interesting things”. The 49ers possess one of the worst rosters in the league meaning they will need to throw the ball. A lot. Chip Kelly, on average over the last three seasons, ran 114 more plays than the 49ers. Ellington plays much bigger than his 5’9” frame and is very creative after the catch. Chip Kelly’s system should mesh nicely with Bruce’s strengths, which include post and nine routes. Blaine Gabbert said that Bruce is “balling right now. He’s catching a lot of passes.” I’m intrigued by Ellington this year, especially in really deep leagues. 2. With Tajae Sharpe being listed as the #2 receiver in two wide sets by reporter Terry McCormick, I’m all in on him this year. With a 6’2”/195 frame, he was a target monster/possession receiver at UMass, leading the nation with 9.3 receptions per game last season. With Green-Beckham’s lack of work ethic and Kendall Wright’s constant let downs, it appears that Sharpe is in line for a fairly significant workload in his rookie season. With the Titans improvements to their running game (additions of Demarco Murray and Derrick Henry), the passing attack should be much more efficient under second year quarterback Marcus Mariota. Delanie Walker and Rishard Matthews should draw the defensive attention away from Sharpe, which will only help him this year. If Green-Beckham struggles to touch the field, I love Tajae Sharpe for late round fantasy value this season. 3. Carolina Panthers beat writer, David Newton, is reporting that Devin Funchess has emerged as the Panthers #2 receiver behind Kelvin Benjamin. At 6’5”/225 and the ability to play outside and in the slot, Funchess has the talent to embarrass opposing defenses. While he only played 44.7 % of the Panthers snaps last season, he still managed to catch 6 TD’s as a rookie. With his size and increase in expected playing time this season, it’s hard to overlook Funchess. With an ADP of 159, expect great production at a cheap cost out of the second year receiver. As I study mock drafts this month, I can't help but notice that some players are going way too late. Here's my take on three running backs that should be drafted significantly higher than their ADP's are at the moment.
1. Personally, I think some of the hate has gone a little too far with Latavius Murray this year (RB 18 in mock drafts), which is why he’s my favorite running back sleeper this season. The Oakland Raiders made a great improvement to the O-Line by adding Kelechi Osemele. The O-Line unit will be one of, if not the best in the league. With weapons like Crabtree and Cooper, it’ll be difficult for opposing defenses to stack the box. Call me crazy, but I don’t think Roy Helu and Taiwan Jones pose a threat to Latavius Murray this year. The Oakland defense will be much improved this season with the additions of Bruce Irvin, Karl Joseph, and Sean Smith. These changes will make the Raiders much more competitive and in turn will lead to a substantial increase in rushing attempts (won’t have to throw to catch up as much). With a 72 % market share of the Raiders carries from last year and the improvements made to the roster this year, I think we can safely project Murray for 290+ carries this season. I’ve got Latavius ranked 13th on my board right now. Expect a nice return on investment from the Oakland back. 2. In mock drafts, Jonathan Stewart is going way too low (RB 26). For some reason people tend to forget how many carries he receives (when he’s healthy). Under Mike Shula, the Panthers have never ranked lower than 8th in rushing attempts. Stewart was on pace for 342 touches before he got injured last season, which is an insane amount of usage. With the defense being a little weaker this year due to Josh Norman’s departure, I’d expect the Panthers to rely on the run even more this season. With three of the best interior blockers in the NFL, the Panthers boast one of the top O-Line’s in the league. I’ll continue to put my trust in Stewart until he proves me wrong. With that being said, I’ve got Jonathan Stewart ranked as my RB 21. Take advantage of the public being down on him in fantasy drafts this year. 3. Lastly, Chris Ivory is one of my favorite backs in the league and he also happens to be going way too late this year at RB 32. It’s obvious, with the contract they gave him and T.J. Yeldon’s ineffectiveness last season, that they’re going to use Ivory a lot. Expect the Jaguars to be a little more run heavy this season to help compliment the young and talented defense (Dante Fowler, Jaylen Ramsey, and Myles Jack). I think we can safely project 250+ touches for Ivory this season. Also, with big time weapons such as Allen Robinson, Julius Thomas, and Allen Hurns, the running game should be efficient due to the inability for opposing defenses to overload the box. Offensive Coordinator, Greg Olson, never seemed to trust Yeldon based on the fact that running backs only touched the ball 39 % of the time inside the opponents 5 yard line last season. I’m expecting a great season out of Chris Ivory this year as I have him ranked as my RB 26. *All ADP’s are collected from FantasyFootballCalculator.com. |