As I study mock drafts this month, I can't help but notice that some players are going way too late. Here's my take on three running backs that should be drafted significantly higher than their ADP's are at the moment.
1. Personally, I think some of the hate has gone a little too far with Latavius Murray this year (RB 18 in mock drafts), which is why he’s my favorite running back sleeper this season. The Oakland Raiders made a great improvement to the O-Line by adding Kelechi Osemele. The O-Line unit will be one of, if not the best in the league. With weapons like Crabtree and Cooper, it’ll be difficult for opposing defenses to stack the box. Call me crazy, but I don’t think Roy Helu and Taiwan Jones pose a threat to Latavius Murray this year. The Oakland defense will be much improved this season with the additions of Bruce Irvin, Karl Joseph, and Sean Smith. These changes will make the Raiders much more competitive and in turn will lead to a substantial increase in rushing attempts (won’t have to throw to catch up as much). With a 72 % market share of the Raiders carries from last year and the improvements made to the roster this year, I think we can safely project Murray for 290+ carries this season. I’ve got Latavius ranked 13th on my board right now. Expect a nice return on investment from the Oakland back. 2. In mock drafts, Jonathan Stewart is going way too low (RB 26). For some reason people tend to forget how many carries he receives (when he’s healthy). Under Mike Shula, the Panthers have never ranked lower than 8th in rushing attempts. Stewart was on pace for 342 touches before he got injured last season, which is an insane amount of usage. With the defense being a little weaker this year due to Josh Norman’s departure, I’d expect the Panthers to rely on the run even more this season. With three of the best interior blockers in the NFL, the Panthers boast one of the top O-Line’s in the league. I’ll continue to put my trust in Stewart until he proves me wrong. With that being said, I’ve got Jonathan Stewart ranked as my RB 21. Take advantage of the public being down on him in fantasy drafts this year. 3. Lastly, Chris Ivory is one of my favorite backs in the league and he also happens to be going way too late this year at RB 32. It’s obvious, with the contract they gave him and T.J. Yeldon’s ineffectiveness last season, that they’re going to use Ivory a lot. Expect the Jaguars to be a little more run heavy this season to help compliment the young and talented defense (Dante Fowler, Jaylen Ramsey, and Myles Jack). I think we can safely project 250+ touches for Ivory this season. Also, with big time weapons such as Allen Robinson, Julius Thomas, and Allen Hurns, the running game should be efficient due to the inability for opposing defenses to overload the box. Offensive Coordinator, Greg Olson, never seemed to trust Yeldon based on the fact that running backs only touched the ball 39 % of the time inside the opponents 5 yard line last season. I’m expecting a great season out of Chris Ivory this year as I have him ranked as my RB 26. *All ADP’s are collected from FantasyFootballCalculator.com.
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1. The most over looked fantasy tight end this year is Zach Miller, with an ADP of 151. With Martellus Bennett long gone and Kevin White coming off of a missed rookie season due to injury, expect Miller to be targeted heavily. Since the Bears possess such an inefficient run game led by Jeremy Langford (2.7 yards per carry against base defenses), Cutler should be asked to throw the ball more this year. First year offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains will aim to limit mistakes with a conservative red zone approach, which should be friendly to the tight end. In weeks where Martellus Bennett was injured last season (14, 15, and 16), Zach Miller averaged 6 – 70 - .33. If we extrapolate this sample size to a full season, we get 96 – 1120 – 5. Expect big numbers from Zach Miller this season.
2. Ladarius Green is still going too low for me in mock drafts (ADP of 88). Green’s fantasy situation can’t get much better. With a healthy (we hope) Ben Roethlisberger, no threat at his position, and Martavis Bryant (Mr. I can’t stay off the weed) suspended, 120 targets are not out of reach this season. Roethlisberger averaged 39 attempts per game last year, which would be good enough for third in the NFL. Also, play caller Todd Haley has gotten progressively more pass heavy in each season with Pittsburgh, posting a 61.6 % mark last year. Ladarius Green should be drafted ahead of Delanie Walker and the over rated Travis Kelce in all formats this year. 3. Dwayne Allen should benefit significantly with Coby Fleener out of town. With an ADP of 147, Allen could be a fantasy hero this season. We know that a healthy Andrew Luck tests his receivers, averaging 604 attempts per season (excluding last year). Expecting much out of 33-year-old Frank Gore would be slightly insane. This sets up for a high volume passing attack, with targets going to T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, and Dwayne Allen. With Jack Doyle posing no threat to his starting job, we can expect Allen to play up to 85 % of the offensive snaps. With Moncrief leading the league in nine routes at 35.6 % (thebackyardbanter.com), look for Allen to have a lot of room to work in the middle of the field. Dwayne Allen is a matchup nightmare for opposing defense at 6’ 3” and 265 pounds. With Allen’s ability to block, defenses are constantly being put in difficult situations. Offensive Coordinator Rob Chudzinski loves to spread the ball around in the red zone, which should help bring some targets his way. I’ll take my chances with the versatile pass catcher this year, knowing that Luck has thrown 30 % of his touchdowns to the tight end over the course of his career. I’m really looking forward to this upcoming football season. Everything you need, including rankings, will be posted right here. I appreciate all of the support I’ve received so far and we’ll keep pumping out the best content. The series will focus on the three biggest free agency moves. We’ll be digging through the stats and taking an in depth look at the team/fantasy implications of these free agency acquisitions. Part two will focus on Dwyane Wade.
2. Dwyane Wade pulled off a surprising move that will lead to some high expectations in Chicago, not by me however. I’ve got some legitimate questions about how efficient the offense will be. As the league transitions to the three point shot, Chicago’s starting PG, SG, and SF combined to make 133 three pointers last season. That number will have to improve this year. Also, the Bulls have three guys that dominate the ball in Rondo (21.3 usage rate/95 touches per game), Wade (30.5 usage rate/58 touches per game), and Butler (24.0 usage rate/68.2 touches per game). As I look at the numbers, I’m curious to see how smooth the half-court offense will run. Unless Jimmy Butler (34.3 % catch and shoot) and Dwyane Wade (43 % catch and shoot) learn to shoot better, it’s hard to see Rondo putting up assist numbers similar to last year. If Mirotic can shoot the ball more consistently, he will add some much needed spacing to the offense. This would then allow the Bull’s guards to use their strengths in getting to the rim. The big three will definitely put pressure on opposing defenses, with an average of 8.6 drives per game. This will be crucial to the team’s success because there simply aren’t any shooters on this team. In terms of fantasy production, I think the big three’s all around numbers will take a hit due to the insertion of two high usage players into the starting lineup. With names like Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade, I expect them to figure it out, but my expectations will be lower than others simply because I don’t like how the pieces fit together. However, If Jimmy Butler continues his growth as an NBA player by adding a three point shot to is repertoire, we may be having a different conversation by the middle of the season. The Miami Heat lost its superstar, but I don’t think it’s as bad as everyone has made it out to be. With Wade posting the 8th highest usage rate in the league, there will be a lot of shots to go around. I would expect Goran Dragic to increase his shot volume and pick up a little more of the facilitation role. Expect an increase in his potential assist rate to rise from the 11.4 mark he posted last year. Justise Winslow will be a significant part of the Heat’s success or failure as a team this year. He will be much needed as a scorer this year. Winslow has displayed a much higher usage rate thus far in Summer League, but his 43.5 true shooting percentage has to increase significantly if the Heat want to do anything this year. Hassan Whiteside is a phenomenal talent that will see his opportunity increase this year. The Heat would love to see Whiteside take advantage of the opportunity, since they offered him a max contract. Josh Richardson is the other piece that will have a lot of say so in how Miami does as a team this year. His 45.8 catch and shoot percentage should be enough to space the floor for Dragic and Whiteside to work. I don’t expect Spoelstra to make any significant changes to the offense, which will allow more opportunities for Richardson to drive to the hoop, however, he will be asked to be more efficient. With more young talent on the floor this year an increase in pace (95.7 possessions) is expected, this will allow for more fantasy production to be split amongst the starters. For fantasy purposes, I really like Dragic and Whiteside this year. The development of Winslow and Richardson could make them nice values in the mid to late rounds (depending on league size). I like the Heat as a sleeper pick, similar to the Trailblazers last season. The development of the Miami Heat’s young core will make them one of the more intriguing teams to keep an eye on this year. The free agency series will focus on the three biggest free agency moves. I wanted to dig through the stats and take an in depth look at the team/fantasy implications of these free agency moves. Part one will focus on Kevin Durant.
1. Kevin Durant to the Warriors is a matchup nightmare. Coaches in the league right now are sweating trying to put a defensive game plan together to stop this “super team”. However, Durant will need to make a few adjustments to his game to allow for the machine, known as the Warriors, to keep running effectively. Kevin Durant has one of the highest isolation percentages in the league at 15%. This poses a problem because no other Warrior had an isolation rate greater than 10%. Durant will have to play within the system, which should lead to a significant drop off in his isolation opportunities. However, with the much improved spacing he’ll encounter, I would expect his efficiency to improve (if that’s even possible). I think Steph’s points per game will drop off some, but I also expect his assist percentage to jump along with Draymond’s (who acts as another PG of the team). Klay Thompson could benefit greatly from Durant due to opposing teams placing their weaker defenders on him. Also, with so much attention being brought to Durant and Curry, Klay might have a few more open shots this year. It’ll be very interesting to watch what they do in terms of usage rates because I expect Durant’s and Steph’s to stay above 27% or so, which means Draymond Green may lose a significant portion of his shots. The spacing and defensive improvements that Durant brings to a team that already had great spacing and defense will be very fun to watch. The overall fantasy numbers may dip just a little for the starters simply because there isn’t enough usage to go around anymore. On the other side, the Thunder have a lot of work ahead of them as they attempt to replace some of Durant’s production. They’ve got a couple options that depend on the development of their young guys. Cameron Payne could be a big part of the rebuild as it would add another ball handler and potential scoring threat. Sabonis is the other piece that could help fill some excess production by spacing the floor as a big, which could help replace Ibaka and allow Westbrook to operate in the half court. I like the idea of the Thunder playing small with Payne, Westbrook, Oladipo, Sabonis, and Adams. This lineup only works if Payne and Oladipo become more efficient scorers. If not, teams will simply play off of them and collapse on everything Westbrook does. The last lineup combo that the Thunder may use is the big lineup with Kanter and Adams, but with Kanter being such a defensive liability (-1.5 defensive real plus minus), it’s hard to trust a lineup with the offensively skilled big man. I think Westbrook is in perfect positon to have an incredible fantasy season, especially if the Thunder can space the floor. Over the past year, Westbrook has displayed a 40% usage rate with Durant off the floor. I would expect that number to regress some, but he should definitely lead the league in usage this year. At pick 1.01 in re drafts, I will be selecting Russell Westbrook without hesitation. Oladipo will have plenty of opportunities to prove himself this year. Opposing teams will need to be defensively prepared because Westbrook and Oladipo combine for 15 drives per game. This will put enormous pressure on the bigs of other teams and in turn will lead to significant foul trouble. Obviously Durant’s departure hurts the Thunder, but I’m interested to watch the team develop throughout the course of the season. |